Editor’s note: Our previews do not include much, if anything, for the fans who have been reading playoff projections virtually every day or every hour for the last six weeks or so — why are people even doing those? –– because — for the first time — the North Carolina High School Athletic Association (NCHSAA) will use MaxPreps-generated power ratings that include strength of schedule and other factors that have not been explained in detail or released by MaxPreps or the NCHSAA.
Caution: Take everything, including speculation here, with a grain of salt… nobody knows for sure who will play where or what seed they will have. The previous playoff formats were difficult to project … and in my 43 years of covering prep football in the state, the brackets are seldom free of significant errors … and power ratings may well make that even moreso. It’s a wait and see unfortunately.
By CHRIS HOBBS
HobbsDailyReport.com
Previewing tonight’s varsity football games:
SOUTH FORK 2A
MAIDEN (10-0, 6-0) at LINCOLNTON (5-5, 4-2), 7:30 p.m.
There’s a lot riding on this South Fork 2A game for the Blue Devils – a conference title is theirs by winning – and they’re trying to cap off an undefeated regular season.
There’s cushion room, as Maiden could fall and still share the league title with the East Lincoln-Newton-Conover winner, but co-championships in the Biggest Little Football Town In The World are sort of like settling for a glazed donut instead of cream-filled with a tarty fruit center.
QB Keygan Mayfield and WR Caleb Daniel have become Clutch I and Clutch II for Maiden this season, and the Blue Devils could end up needing big-time scoring plays tonight if their defense does not man up and address Lincolnton RB Tyshaun Harris.
Harris broke the Lincoln County single-game rushing record last week with 318 yards and four TDs in a score-a-thon 56-41 victory over North Lincoln.
This is game No. 38 in the series since 1980 with the Wolves leading 20-16-1. Lincolnton had won six straight in the series when Maiden went there last season and won 65-47.
The Wolves are at .500 this season but are still 30-9 in their last 39 games.
Maiden, 7-12 at Lincolnton since 1982, can reach 11 wins for the 15th time in school history with a victory.
Lincolnton is chasing its 18th straight playoff bid but, without a win, will likely finish lower than third in its conference standings for the first time in a decade.
EAST LINCOLN (6-4, 5-1) at NEWTON-CONOVER (8-2, 5-1), 7:30 p.m.
At the very least, second place in the South Fork 2A is on the line tonight at Gurley Stadium. And with a little help from Lincolnton, which plays Maiden at home tonight, the winner in Newton could share a conference title.
East Lincoln — after dropping a double overtime game at Maiden and then winning an overtime game last Friday over West Lincoln with a big rally – is as battle-tested as any team in the conference.
The Mustangs, led by RB Chandler Jones and QB Chase Jones, arrive riding a six-game win streak in the series that includes winning the last three played at Gurley Stadium.
East Lincoln and Newton-Conover have split their last 16 matchups, and a factor if the Red Devils are going to win will be how well they play and whether or not they have suspended RB Tylor Stinson in uniform.
Stinson has missed the last two games, and school officials have said only that he was suspended for violating a team rule. Newton-Conover is a better team with Stinson in a lineup that also includes star QB Shamar Baker.
The Mustangs have earned 12 straight postseason bids and 21 in school history.
The Red Devils can become the first Newton-Conover team with nine wins since 2012 by winning and the 22nd unit to get at least that many wins since retired coach Don Patrick arrived in 1974 and began to build the program’s consistency.
NORTH LINCOLN (2-8, 1-5) at BANDYS (4-6, 2-4), 7:30 p.m.
It’s a huge South Fork 2A game, especially for the Trojans, as the teams meet for the fourth time.
Bandys needs a win to keep alive hopes it will end up with a MaxPreps rating good enough to get it into the postseason for the 23rd time in school history.
A fifth win would give the Trojans as least that many for the 20th time in 23 seasons.
North Lincoln, 7-25 in its last 32 games, very well could miss the state playoffs for a ninth straight season or get in with a losing record and contribute to the crazy aspect of two or three-win teams still having football uniforms on.
Bandys has won the last two meetings handily – by 47 points at Bandys in 2011 and by 24 points at North Lincoln the next year – and the other battle was a 2007 super-exciting state playoff game the Knights won 38-34 at North Lincoln.
Bandys RB Ethan Howard has been a season-long leader and Ja’Tay Culliver, who can play several positions, has had back-to-back big games for the Trojans.
The Trojans’ secondary will have to play well, as Knights QB Reed McRorie has several big-play targets and that’s kept North Lincoln in just about every game this season.
LAKE NORMAN CHARTER (3-7. 0-6) at WEST LINCOLN (3-7, 1-5), 7:30 p.m.
Since no one knows exactly what the MaxPreps power ratings are going to be – or how they really work – the Rebels could get into the state playoffs but probably only if they win tonight.
West Lincoln has more offensive threats than the Knights do – RB Nakathan Panshook among them – and having a chance to get to the postseason should get the Rebels pumped up.
If they need any added motivation, head coach Tom Sain could use getting into the postseason bracket as a great present for his 53rd birthday (Monday).
West Lincoln has made the state playoffs seven times in school history, all of the bids coming since 2005.
NORTHWESTERN FOOTHILLS 2A
PATTON (8-2, 5-0) at HIBRITEN (10-0, 5-0), 7:30 p.m.
It should be a great football game in Lenoir tonight, with the winner taking the Northwestern Foothills 2A title and the loser finishing in second place.
It’s a Panthers-Panthers battle – the ninth one – and Hibriten leads 8-1 with Patton’s only win in the series coming in 2015 in Lenoir (22-20).
Hibriten has remained healthy for the most part all season, while Patton has dealt with an early-season injury that sidelined first QB Joe Eakin and then RB William Brawley.
The game features two of the best head coaches in the Greater Hickory area – Patton’s Tom Eanes has 147 career wins in 29 years, Clay Lewis leads Hibriten for the 90th time (67-22).
Perhaps the best part of tonight is that both teams will reach the postseason regardless of the outcome, with Hibriten latching onto its 16th straight bid and already assured of an 11th consecutive non-losing season.
Patton, 1-5 at Hibriten, could make some school history by winning. The Panthers will end up with either their first varsity football title or their best finish in school history if they finish second.
Patton tied for third last season in the Northwestern 3A-4A and all of its other varsity football finishes previously were anywhere from fourth to eighth place.
WEST IREDELL (5-5, 3-2) at FRED T. FOARD (7-3, 3-2), 7:30 p.m.
Foard, by many standards, has had a highlight year but still needs to win tonight to add some luster to head coach Derrick Minor’s second season there.
West Iredell will come in playing for the mindset it must win to get into the state playoffs – the Tigers likely will even if they lose – and the game will determine who finishes third in the Northwestern Foothills 2A.
Foard has won in much the same fashion its previous best teams did – with a strong nucleus that leads the way and by boosting that by playing well as a team, and by and never really thinking it is outmatched.
A win would give Foard: a) its first team with eight or more since 2008; b) its fourth in school history with at least that many wins (1981-83, 2008 are the others); and c ) even Minor’s record in Tigerland at 11-11.
West Iredell has missed the state playoffs five straight seasons and, like Foard, has multiple offensive threats.
Don’t be surprised if the game is close. They haven’t met since 2005, when the Warriors won 28-12 at Foard, but they have three other games in a nine-game series that had winning margins of 1, 3 and 8 points, the first two margins in Tigers wins.
EAST BURKE (1-9, 0-5) at DRAUGHN (2-8, 1-4), 7:30 p.m.
The season ends for both Burke County rivals when they meet in a Northwestern Foothills 2A game tonight in Valdese.
Both teams have had tough seasons, with East Burke having won once to avoid a third winless season in school history (0-11 in 1998, 2010).
The Cavs and Wildcats have played eight games with East Burke leading 5-3 and having won three straight and four of the last five.
They’ve split four games at Draughn.
The Wildcats are 31-70 all-time in varsity football, and they’re playing under head coach Scott Lambert, who is in his second tenure there, for the 80th time (27-52).
NORTHWESTERN 3A-4A
HICKORY (6-4, 4-2) at ST. STEPHENS (4-6, 3-3), 7:30 p.m.
The Red Tornadoes have traditionally dominated the series – they lead 25-5 and one of the five losses was a forfeit – but there’s really nothing to indicate this won’t be a back-and-forth battle.
There’s great incentive for Hickory to handle the Indians, from reaching seven wins for the first time since 2012 to winning to finish no worse than tied for second in the Northwestern 3A-4A.
Hickory QB Derrien Phillips has had perhaps even a better senior year than he did as a junior, and new head coach Russell Stone has again done what he’s known for doing – taking over a program and making a quick turnaround.
St. Stephens, which beat Hickory the last time the rivals meet on Springs Road (48-45 in 2015), could be a six- or seven-win team under head coach Wayne Hicks with a break here or there in a few games this season.
If the Indians win, they’ll be watching closely as the state playoff pairings are put together. But with little known about exactly how the MaxPreps rankings work, a 5-6 record might not get them in.
Best scenario: Both the Red Tornadoes and Indians get into the postseason.
ALEXANDER CENTRAL (9-1, 5-1) at SOUTH CALDWELL (1-9, 1-5), 7:30 p.m.
The Cougars need a win over the Spartans in their 26th meeting since 1985 to lock up an outright Northwestern 3A-4A title. Even if the Cougars fall, they would share the title with Watauga, Hickory – or both – if the latter two win tonight.
Alexander Central has a ton more weapons – starting with QB Gunnar Anderson – than the Spartans do.
South Caldwell is in a bit of an unusual situation. The league has two 4A schools (McDowell is the other), and both have one league win … so the Spartans still get into the postseason if they lose in Taylorsville as long as Freedom beats McDowell. If McDowell wins, it gets in as a 4A champ in a combination conference.
Look for some fussing/a firestorm once the brackets are released, as some projections have shown South Caldwell getting a seed that would generate a first-round bye… and that, unfortunately, is going to likely be a poster child example when the new playoff system – MaxPreps rankings being such a big factor – go under the microscope.
An upset win by the Spartans might reduce the noise, but they are 7-18 against the Cougars and Alexander Central is 10-2 in Hudson so the odds are against such an upset.
FREEDOM (6-4, 3-3) at McDOWELL (2-8, 1-5), 7:30 p.m.
The Titans actually have a path into the state playoffs tonight – beat the Patriots, something McDowell hasn’t done in the last two meetings and in eight of the previous nine.
Freedom QB Jayden Birchfield leads a team that is 19-12 against the Titans with seven straight wins in the series.
McDowell has been to the state playoffs three straight seasons, but even with a fourth will end up with a losing record for five straight years.
Freedom, certainly favored to win in Marion again, is vying for its 24th all-time postseason bid.
WEST CALDWELL (6-4, 3-3) at WATAUGA (8-2, 4-2), 7:30 p.m.
The Pioneers need a home win to finish no worse than tied for second in the Northwestern 3A-4A, a spot they currently share with Hickory.
Tonight’s game in Boone is the 60th for Watauga with Ryan Habich as head coach (41-18) and a win would give the Pioneers back-to-back nine win seasons.
First-year head coach DeVore Holman has West Caldwell, coming off a stunning loss against McDowell in overtime, in position to get a state playoff bid for the third straight season. A win would help there.
The Warriors are 23-13 in their last 36 games, and they had not played in a state playoff game for 10 straight years before turning things around the previous two seasons and getting into the postseason.